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今天早上听SSS,碰巧一篇就是关于厄尔尼诺的,非常好玩的内容,想不到还有这样的研究,但是厄尔尼诺对于社会的影响应该不是全球性的,不同的地方偏暖偏冷的情况不同,对社会的影响应该也不同。
分享给大家啦。
有听力原文和音频。
ScA 60S 110829 El Nino Ups Conflict Odds
Historians have speculated for years that global environmental changes caused some ancient wars to erupt, or even societies to collapse. Such connections may still exist—because new research finds that the risk of civil war in tropical countries increases during hot, dry El Nino years as opposed to cooler La Nina periods. The study is in the journal Nature. [Solomon M. Hsiang, Kyle C. Meng and Mark A. Cane, Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate]
Researchers used a database of global conflicts over the last six decades, which included clashes resulting in at least 25 deaths in battle. They compared those data to the three- to seven-year cycling of El Nino. And they found that the risk of conflict doubled during El Nino years—but only in tropical countries most affected by the climate cycle. El Nino may have played a role in spurring a fifth of the 234 conflicts studied.
This study can’t determine a cause. But the researchers say hot El Nino conditions can diminish harvests, causing food shortages and sparking conflicts. And since El Nino can be predicted up to two years in advance, governments and NGOs might be better able to plan for the possibility of a civil war.
—Christopher Intagliata
[The above text is a transcript of this podcast]
Scientific American is part of the Nature Publishing Group.
7777700131252ijfn.MP3
(1.17 MB, 下载次数: 5)
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